We have a unique opportunity here:

[Isaac Sauvage]

you know all those sci-fi scenerios set in a post-apocalyptic world where the remnants of humanity are nosing about barren lands... and then one of them discovers the remains of a high-tech civilisation from the past and it leads to a fascinating story?

well, it hit me recently that we are that forgotten people.

traditionally we've thought of 'atlantis' or 'xanadu', etc as being the one, but as the science reports pour in, it now becomes clear that we ourselves are that doomed but fascinating society. because the brightest minds in science now give us between 10-40 years before our stupidity wipes ourselves and 99%+ of life off the planet.

that's assuming that we don't manage to unite the globe against the threat. (yea, right)

so what do you think is worth remembering about this era of humanity? (good or bad)

 

[mrschultz]

Less than 40? I've been thinking 80 to 100, from overpopulation. Figure we max out available farm land in 50 and rely on technology inprovments for another 20, then things get edgy, one or 2 failed crops in one region starts a snowball effect of shortages and fighting leading to more shortages and more fighting, ect...

Less than 40 would have to be from biological or nuclear war, given the way things are going right now I guess those are coming back as threats.

Either way it will not be like that show on the history channel where people are just suddenly gone, the earth will be a fairly messed up place for a long time. One thing those shows ignore is that without constant maintenance there are waste storage facilities that could poison all the oceans. When we go, it will be worse than the event that wiped out the dinosaurs.

But in a few dozen million years things would be lush and full of life again, and nothing we leave behind on Earth can survive that long. Water is amazing, it will destroy ANYTHING given enough time.

Any record of us would have to be left in space, like the disks put aboard the voyager spacecraft, I always thought they did a great job with what they put on there. I'd say put more of the same in some bigger space archives, on the Moon and Mars. Our art, music, stories.

To leave a record of what we were like, take a snapshot of the Internet, that would probably do a good job of showing the good, bad, and pointless aspects of the human race....

Later,
Marty

 

[Pop Bumper Pete]

Sorry Nic, but I do not agree with your 'doomsday' scenario

Even IF I was to accept all your apocalyptic ideas, it still would not lead to the end of mankind
Cut the population down to a certain level, and we no longer dig for oil
Stop digging for oil and the planes stop flying, boat stop sailing
With no oil we cannot dig huge quantities of minerals out of the ground, we cannot make large scale weapons
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The human race would survive

 

[LeeVanCleef]

I don't think there is any other choice but to agree with Nic's Doomsday scenario; it's gonna happen. Whether it's tomorrow afternoon at 2PM GMT or a millenia from now is the only unanswerable. Like Neil Young says, "Just another line in the field of time. When the thrasher comes I'll be stuck in the sun like the dinosaurs and shrines."

So, in answer to Nic's query:
Going to the moon. Actually leaving the fucking planet and going to another body in space. Still blows my mind every time I think about it.
The Soviet Union's Stalinist purges. Some say 10 million dead, some say 20 million dead, with the answer probably in the middle. The most concentrated loss of life on our planet since that space rock blowed up the dinosaurs... and it was all "man-made."
Oh yeah... the Ipod. Probably somewhere in between the other two.

 

[Isaac Sauvage]

i guess i should have been clearer here- by 'doomed', i specifically meant that we are on track to wipe ourselves out by runaway global climate change.

i am aware of the threats of massive explosive overpopulation, nuclear winter, the possibility of an asteroid hitting us in 2017, genetically engineered plague-like micro-organisms that could decimate the population and so forth. not to mention that the sun is eventually going to 'explode' in five billion years, so we'll probably need to move offplanet by then. i do not mean to marginalise these other concerns, because they are certainly very serious threats. but the difference is, apart from the sun, that these scenerios are all possibles-- they may or may not happen, compared to GCC which is on track to absolutely happen.

regarding runaway climate change, this is not my idea of course but that of the world's scientific body.

every science org on earth is in agreement that unless we do something quickly there will be a doomsday, and furthermore, the rate we are approaching that doomsday increases over time. a mere 3-4 decades ago it was widely estimated that humanity had 1000 years to deal with this greenhouse gas stuff. now, many of the science orgs point to 2100 or 2050 as being the dates we must change drastically by, or perish. but the problem with these latest estimates is that science orgs have a reputation to uphold and will almost always estimate on the conservative side. take the individual scientists aside who contributed to the reports, however, and most (if not all) of them tend to be more pessimistic about the dates. no scientist i've ever heard or read has said that we probably have more time than the group estimates, unless they're in the increasingly dwindling group of those who consider GCC to be rubbish. and there is a very well-understood reason behind the pessimism which you may have heard of- the idea of "tipping points". this is probably the biggest reason why the public just doesn't understand how critical of an issue this is.

if you're not familiar with tipping points, this short animation should help:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5T_3WJPYY9g#t=0m24s

in terms of what 'doomsday' will be like when we reach it, i am still trying to get a better picture. some estimate that the oceans will be completely boiled off, some that the earth will return to something approaching the proto-volcanic state in which only certain kinds of bacteria were able to survive, and some probably estimate that small pockets of humanity will be able to survive here and there. i don't know how much consensus there is on these estimates so it's difficult to show people what the earth might be like if we do nothing (or not enough) about global warming.

the reason i started this thread is because i have been really haunted by this issue the past week or so, finding difficulty knowing what to do with the rest of my life and feeling depressed that such important things i enjoy, such as wildlife, will almost certainly be dragged down when humanity goes under. i mean, plants and animals are already being devastated by man's hand-- it will just get much, much worse.

i can't tell you how sad that makes me, because all my life i've thought that, even if humanity wiped itself out (ex: nuclear winter), other animals would find a way to go on and some of them would quite possibly inherit our standing as 'ultra-intelligent' creatures. that was always a very cheery thought whenever i was pessimistic about humanity. but now things have changed a lot... how can i take the human race even remotely seriously when it's probably going to crash and burn in our lifetimes by our own hands, likely wiping out its successors as well? so my latest productive thought was to think of myself as an explorer in time, able to witness first-hand the splendor and positive accomplishments of civilisation before it's gone... before there are only fragments left that may or may not be discovered by future lifeforms or aliens one day.

 

[Anthias]

Lol - I was banking on this, so I went for a 30 year bank loan........ (I figure ten years, it starts, 15 it hits hard, 20, bank is gone, so 10 years off the loan! lol....) there have been some convincing arguments relating to the complete eradication of civilisations far more advanced than our own. who really knows?

 

[Pop Bumper Pete]

ruby, the planet is going to be eaten by a giant mutant space goat, so any archives will be destroyed

Nic, go outside in the sun and cheer up
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_affective_disorder

 

[LeeVanCleef]

That fucking goat ain't coming near my Ipod!

 

[Isaac Sauvage]

@martin,
you're a good man. :]


@pete,
i wish i could hide my head in the sand and jettison my sense of responsibility to the planet.
in a way i really do admire your ability to do those things, and not in a sarcastic, ironic way, but from the standpoint of zen buddhism, ie live in the moment, because in the final analysis that's all we really have.

 

[mrschultz]

i guess i should have been clearer here- by 'doomed', i specifically meant that we are on track to wipe ourselves out by runaway global climate change.

i am aware of the threats of massive explosive overpopulation,

Climate change and population are very tightly linked.

i can't tell you how sad that makes me, because all my life i've thought that, even if humanity wiped itself out (ex: nuclear winter), other animals would find a way to go on and some of them would quite possibly inherit our standing as 'ultra-intelligent' creatures. that was always a very cheery thought whenever i was pessimistic about humanity. but now things have changed a lot... how can i take the human race even remotely seriously when it's probably going to crash and burn in our lifetimes by our own hands, likely wiping out its successors as well? so my latest productive thought was to think of myself as an explorer in time, able to witness first-hand the splendor and positive accomplishments of civilisation before it's gone... before there are only fragments left that may or may not be discovered by future lifeforms or aliens one day.

We are in no way 'ultra-intelligent', maybe a few individuals in human history have be 'highly-intelligent'.

And next I see the problem, stop trying to take the human race seriously, if we were worthy of being taken seriously we wouldn't be in this mess.

I know it's hard when there are a few individuals here and there that offer a view of what things could be like, if everyone used half of their brain power this world could be a paradise. But that aint gonna happen.... I just love the part in Men In Black where K talks about individuals vs. "people".

I would probably be a nice project to fire time capsules into deep space every few years, even if just to give the masses false hope that someday we would go out and retrieve them.

 

[elton]

The Victorian enterprise and engineering feats without whom we wouldn't have got this far.

Oh wait a minute, that means the planet is doomed by global warming directly attributable to the Victorians - the bastards says nic :D.

(Sorry buddy couldn't resist it - but I have to side with Pete - you need to get out more .......................... if only because it's not going to be there long enough if ya keep inside reading all that shit!)

 

[Isaac Sauvage]

Climate change and population are very tightly linked.

yes, and the only way we are going to survive is if we unlink them.

We are in no way 'ultra-intelligent', maybe a few individuals in human history have be 'highly-intelligent'.

i was looking at it in terms of the fact that there are already highly intelligent animals on the planet, such as cetaceans, parrots & crows, cephalopods, the other apes and probably a few other mammals, like pigs. so if we're smarter than them then we are some word more than "highly". but maybe "ultra" was a reach.

...if everyone used half of their brain power this world could be a paradise. But that aint gonna happen....

agree, and you know, the world was already fairly paradise-like in many places before civilisation came along. not by our standards, of course, but by the standard of satisfaction with life.

The Victorian enterprise and engineering feats without whom we wouldn't have got this far.

then maybe we shouldn't have come this far?

...you need to get out more .......................... if only because it's not going to be there long enough if ya keep inside reading all that shit!)

i took your advice today and pulled dandelions. ordinarily i'd like to have left some for the wild rabbits, but my stepdad sprinkled all the lawns with "weed and feed", so it's prolly better that the bunnies don't ingest that stuff.

here's another project:

i just added the suet feeder. any advice on how to get the birds to nosh on it?

 

[scapino]

You want to talk intellegence....?

That little metal guard isn't goin' to keep the mighty brainiac squirls from those tasty titbits... :)

Kurt

 

[Isaac Sauvage]

actually that's the only thing i've ever found to keep out the squirrels.

previous attempts were adding cayenne to the seeds, greasing the feeder pole, and making a barrier of sharpened thumbtacks. they all failed completely.

 

[Pop Bumper Pete]

So, prophet Nic
How long have we got?
5 days
5 weeks
5 years (now you sound like PacDud the Preacher man)
500 years
5,000,000 years?
<O</O
All I need to know, should I cancel my Xmas plans?

 

[Isaac Sauvage]

pete, tom, elton, steve, kurt,

(and whoever else who thinks that i'm a goofy chicken with my head cut off about climate change), can i just ask you a couple of questions before you disappear?--

first, if some old friend came up to you and babbled about the earth being imminently decimated by a science issue, and the issue required you to spend a lot of your time reading authentic science reports and spend a lot of your time doing hard soul-searching, which side would would you be likely to come down on?

would you have have spent your valuable free time stressing over depressing science reports or would you have looked for the quickest reason to dismiss the whole issue?

show of hands, please?


NEXT QUESTION, given that science is unanimous that we're doomed unless we act quickly (one, two, and three).

and that me, your friend who you ordinarily listen to, and the most brilliant mind on the planet, stephen hawking, warn you that we are on the verge of disaster, and that reports keep pouring in from all over the world that we are losing the battle: one, two, three...

exactly how much more would it require for you to ever take a global threat seriously?

jesus descending on a pogo stick after 2000 years? superman landing on your doorstep and shaking your hand?...

or would there be no way to ever convince you if the planet was in peril?

sorry for being silly, but i'm trying to put myself in your heads and imagine how your brain processes work. i keep assuming that there must be some way for nature to warn you that you are in danger, but maybe i'm wrong. maybe humans are completely happy going to their doom as long as they have their latest pussy, videogames and music downloads.

do you disagree?

 

[Phoenixx]

maybe humans are completely happy going to their doom as long as they have their latest pussy, videogames and music downloads.

As sad as it is for the people who realize that, (since they have to share the consequences), but this seems to be precisely the case.

The old panem et circenses tactic still seems to work pretty well for those in power,...give them enough work so they can feed themselves but never have the time to actually think about the world, and always provide them with enough superficial entertainment so they stay happy and dont get insubordinate,...

 

[Pop Bumper Pete]

Nic, I would take the issue of climate change more seriously if those alerting us to climate change did there bit by example (rather then flying over the world, thereby pumping more CO2 into the air)

 

[elton]

(and whoever else who thinks that i'm a goofy chicken with my head cut off about climate change)

No, I don't see you in that light at all nic. You're just passionate about the peeps saving the planet from the inevitable destruction the scientists have stated is coming .... but I do not believe them and think it has been so over egged. Simple as is. Jeeze there are a lot of very rich peeps making a fortune out of this. No Govt will go against the so called greenies because they are currently popular and Govt are not up to the green fight - so they go along with it and set (useless IMO) carbon footprint targets in the false belief that they are actually doing something to reverse the carbon polution. All the while jetting about between Europe / America / Aisa and Africa on really 'green' jumbos and airbuses for conferences and important meeting on carbon reductions whilst actually contribuing to the problem in a huge way. When these so called hypocrites start reducing their own wastage and adhere to what they preach ... they may convert me. But until then .... nah. I'll sit it out.

Now you can perceive my viewpoint in any way you want eg, I'm an idiot, uneducated etc etc. ... whatever. If it's coming ... it's coming. Man is not going to change it. Personally, I blame Pete's bakery. All those ovens spewing out carbon emissions just so the locals can eat bread and pastries, Doh.

Or should that be dough

 

[Pop Bumper Pete]

Personally, I blame Pete's bakery. All those ovens spewing out carbon emissions just so the locals can eat bread and pastries, Doh.

Or should that be dough

Not if I do not burn stuff


But Prince big ears made his Rolls Royce run on used chicken fat didn't he?

 

[elton]

Hehe ....

 

[mrschultz]

The next threat comming up will be the next maximum in the solar cycle.

The current minimum is lasting way too long, we should have come out of it over a year ago. The longer we stay in minimum the more active the next maximum will be.

It's likely to be so active that it will cause damage to sattilites, the power grid, and more importantly the Earth's magnetic field.

So this summer might be colder than normal due to low solar activity, but in 2 years we may be in for some serious trouble.

Funny I don't see anyone using this solar minimum to support global warming, I was expecting a much more severe winters for the last 2 years , the summer during the next maximum might be unbearable.

 

[elton]

But Prince big ears made his Rolls Royce run on used chicken fat didn't he?

Missed this on the first read ..... Yeah 'ol Charlie boy is a card alrighty. He's a really nice guy but he doesn't exist in the real world. Not sure about the chicken fat but he's probably converted it to run on something - probably does about 30 chickens to the mile pulling it! He's still driving an ancient Aston Martin that does like 6 to the gallon while telling everyone to be greener.

What can you say.

Bless

 

[Isaac Sauvage]

Nic, I would take the issue of climate change more seriously if those alerting us to climate change did there bit by example (rather then flying over the world, thereby pumping more CO2 into the air)

...All the while jetting about between Europe / America / Aisa and Africa on really 'green' jumbos and airbuses for conferences and important meeting on carbon reductions whilst actually contribuing to the problem in a huge way. When these so called hypocrites start reducing their own wastage and adhere to what they preach ... they may convert me. But until then .... nah. I'll sit it out.

thanks for these replies. i've heard this line of thought before but i think i've underestimated how pervasive it might be.

when i get a chance i will try to dig up background info on how gore and others tackle this problem. actually if you have any other names besides gore for me to investigate, that would be good. he's only one guy out of thousands working on this issue, after all, and he's more of a reporter than a scientist, anyway.

You're just passionate about the peeps saving the planet from the inevitable destruction the scientists have stated is coming .... but I do not believe them and think it has been so over egged. Simple as is. Jeeze there are a lot of very rich peeps making a fortune out of this. No Govt will go against the so called greenies because they are currently popular and Govt are not up to the green fight - so they go along with it and set (useless IMO) carbon footprint targets in the false belief that they are actually doing something to reverse the carbon polution.

interesting, elton. i take it then, that you believe there is some kind of conspiracy going on between the world's science orgs and a network of people out to immorally profit from green energy. (it would have to be a major conspiracy given how unanimous science is on this issue)

if you could sketch out more details, name names, etc, that would be good. if i can research the frauds in the energy industry who making money by manipulating opinion on GCC, i don't see why i can't do the same for the alleged frauds in the green industry.

The next threat comming up will be the next maximum in the solar cycle.

The current minimum is lasting way too long, we should have come out of it over a year ago. The longer we stay in minimum the more active the next maximum will be.

It's likely to be so active that it will cause damage to sattilites, the power grid, and more importantly the Earth's magnetic field.

So this summer might be colder than normal due to low solar activity, but in 2 years we may be in for some serious trouble.

Funny I don't see anyone using this solar minimum to support global warming, I was expecting a much more severe winters for the last 2 years , the summer during the next maximum might be unbearable.

most orgs tracking this issue seem to specifically avoid making a link between increased GCC and the sun. here's an example:
http://www.grist.org/article/its-the-sun-stupid

if you have a link about the solar cycle problem you mention, i'd be interested in learning more.

 

[mrschultz]

most orgs tracking this issue seem to specifically avoid making a link between increased GCC and the sun.

I wasn't implying that the sun has been a major factor in GCC, the next solar maximum is likely to be a record breaker since the industrial age, a lot of our technology is going to be at risk. And if the Earth is indeed close to a magnetic pole reversal the extreme activity could be something that pushes it over, but that's big speculation, the poles might be a thousand years away from reversing... It will be a threat to humanity that could theoretically bring about a lot of minor disasters and snowball into a major human catastrophe.

There is correlation between el-nino, la-nina, and sunspots, and during the little ice age there was lower than normal sunspot activity.

So give the extra levels of greenhouse gasses now in the atmosphere, small changes in solar ratiation will have much more of an effect on global climate. They really should start paying more attention to the solar cycle as things get worse.